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Evolutionary Modeling of Sustainability Transition in Energy Systems

Mahmoodi, Morteza | 2025

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  1. Type of Document: Ph.D. Dissertation
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 57999 (46)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Energy Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Saboohi, Yadollah; Khajepour, Hossein; Köhler, Jonathan
  7. Abstract:
  8. Global challenges such as the depletion of natural resources, climate change, imbalances in energy supply and demand, financial crises, and social inequalities have highlighted the necessity for fundamental transformations in socio-technical systems to achieve sustainability. This dissertation focuses on the energy sector as a key area for sustainable development and develops agent-based mathematical models grounded in evolutionary economics and the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) framework to evaluate the mechanisms, dynamics, and policies effective in the transition process toward sustainability. Initially, the dissertation presents a model for assessing the transition to sustainability in the maritime transportation sector, providing a quantitative and evolutionary economic framework to examine transition mechanisms and the interactions of heterogeneous agents. It also evaluates the impact of modernizing existing systems on the transition process. Subsequently, recognizing the critical issue of optimizing and transitioning from a subsidy-based energy structure in Iran's fossil energy sector, a model is developed to assess transition pathways. The case study for this model is Iran’s energy systems—a system characterized by governance based on fossil fuel subsidies and extensive government intervention in energy supply, resulting in adverse outcomes such as air pollution, high energy consumption intensity, and budget deficits. This research demonstrates that addressing these challenges cannot be achieved solely through technological development but requires macro-level changes in social dimensions and policy-making. The findings indicate that in the maritime transportation sector, the adoption of low-carbon technologies and the modernization of existing systems, coupled with stringent environmental policies, can accelerate the transition to sustainability. Additionally, the results of the energy system transition model for Iran reveal that implementing an energy optimization market scheme aimed at increasing energy efficiency and public participation leads to significant energy consumption savings and cost reductions, particularly among low-income households. These results highlight the importance of investing in infrastructure and formulating policies that align with the capacities of agents across different sectors of the economy. The primary innovation of this research is the provision of a quantitative framework for analyzing the dynamics of the transition process and the feasibility of policy pathways in the energy system. This framework, by reducing uncertainties and increasing confidence, offers a suitable analytical tool for policymakers to plan technical and social changes concurrently. Future research suggestions include expanding the analysis to other economic sectors, evaluating the impact of structural changes in energy supply, and incorporating the intrinsic behaviors of policymakers
  9. Keywords:
  10. Agent Based Modeling ; Energy Policy ; Sustainability Transition ; Energy System ; Evolutionary Economics

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