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Optimization of Taleghan Dam Operation under Climate Change Conditions Using an “Artificial Neural Network (MLP)”

Roozkhash, Alireza | 2026

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 58855 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Ghaemian, Mohsen; Shamsai, Abolfazl
  7. Abstract:
  8. This study was conducted with the aim of investigating the impacts of climate change on meteorological parameters, including temperature, radiation, and precipitation, as well as on the inflow to the Taleghan Dam reservoir, and optimizing water allocation from this dam in a manner that ensures higher-priority demands are met with the greatest possible reliability. In this research, the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network was employed to simulate and predict the discharge of the Shahroud River (Taleghan) for the period 2021–2040. To this end, meteorological data of Taleghan were first projected under climate change conditions for the period 2021–2040 using the LARS-WG 8 statistical downscaling model, based on the MIROC6 and ACCESS climate models. Subsequently, by implementing the MLP artificial neural network in the MATLAB environment, the inflow to the Taleghan Dam reservoir for the target period was predicted under projected climate change scenarios. Thereafter, the optimization of water demand allocation from the reservoir was carried out for the 2021–2040 horizon using the WEAP model. The results indicate that throughout the optimization period (2021–2040), the average monthly reservoir storage will not exceed 127.5 million cubic meters. From August to late December, the mean reservoir volume remains approximately at the dead storage level (100 million cubic meters). Furthermore, the reliability of fully meeting all categories of water withdrawals from Taleghan Dam remains below 51.3% throughout the optimization period. In other words, during 48.7% of the study period, none of the water demands are completely satisfied. This severe water scarcity in the Taleghan Dam reservoir necessitates the adoption of effective management strategies to establish a logical and appropriate balance between water demands and the river’s capacity. Therefore, developing a comprehensive framework for the optimal allocation of water resources in the Taleghan basin is both essential and unavoidable
  9. Keywords:
  10. Climate Change ; Water Supply ; Agriculture ; Artificial Neural Network ; Matlab Software ; Weap Software ; Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) ; Potable Water ; Reservoir Operation ; Taleghan Dam Reservoir ; Industrial Water

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