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  1. ???en.آلودگی هوا و دقت تهاجمی در فوتبال حرفه‌ای: شواهدی از مواجهه با PM2.5- لیگ برتر خلیج‌ فارس ایران???

Air Pollution and Offensive Precision in Professional Football: Evidence from PM2.5 Exposure, Iran's Persian-Gulf Pro League

Bakhtar, Ali Asghar | 2025

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: English
  3. Document No: 58847 (44)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Management and Economics
  6. Advisor(s): Fatemi Ardestani, Farshad; Amanzadeh, Naser
  7. Abstract:
  8. This paper examines whether short-run exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) affects offensive efficiency in professional football. While existing research documents that air pollution reduces passing productivity and may influence aggregate match outcomes, little is known about its effect on precision-based attacking margins. We address this gap by focusing on home shots on target (SOT), a performance indicator that directly reflects offensive accuracy and is closely linked to scoring probability. Using match-level data from the Iranian Pro League covering the 2017–18 to 2022–23 seasons, we exploit within-team variation in pollution exposure across 1,150 matches with observed PM2.5 concentrations. The empirical strategy employs a high-dimensional fixed-effects framework with team-by-season and week-by-season effects, alongside detailed weather and contextual controls. This specification isolates short-run environmental variation from persistent team heterogeneity and common temporal shocks. The results indicate that higher match-day PM2.5 exposure is associated with a statistically significant decline in home shots on target. In the preferred specification, a one-unit increase in PM2.5 reduces home SOT by approximately 0.006. Evaluated at one standard deviation of pollution, this implies a meaningful reduction in offensive precision. The findings are robust to alternative clustering structures, exclusion of metropolitan matches, exclusion of derby fixtures, and replacement of PM2.5 with the Air Quality Index (AQI). The evidence is consistent with a technical strain mechanism whereby environmental degradation impairs precision-sensitive actions rather than purely physical output. By shifting attention from passing volume and aggregate outcomes to shot accuracy, this study contributes to the pollution–productivity literature and provides new evidence on how environmental shocks interact with competitive performance in professional sports
  9. Keywords:
  10. Air Pollution ; Particulate Matter Less than 2.5 mm ; Sports Economics ; Productivity Analysis ; Shots on Target ; High Dimensional Fixed Effects ; Environmental Shocks ; Competitive Performance ; Professional Football League ; Home Advantage

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