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ارزیابی اثر پرداخت وام فرزندآوری بر نرخ زاد و ولد
خسروزاده، مهران Khosrozadeh, Mehran
Evaluating the Impact of Childbirth Loan Payments on the Birth Rate
Khosrozadeh, Mehran | 2025
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- Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
- Language: Farsi
- Document No: 58597 (44)
- University: Sharif University of Technology
- Department: Management and Economics
- Advisor(s): Fatemi Ardestani, Farshad; Tajrishi, Mohammad Saeed
- Abstract:
- This study evaluates the impact of the childbearing loan policy on the General Fertility Rate (GFR) in Iran. Assessing policy outcomes constitutes an essential part of the policymaking process, as it helps ensure the optimal allocation of limited and valuable societal resources toward achieving predetermined objectives. Alongside the global decline in fertility, Iran has also experienced a significant drop in birth rates. This trend, accompanied by population aging and a shrinking youth population, may pose serious long-term economic, social, and political challenges for the country. In response, efforts to improve fertility levels were placed on the national agenda, ultimately leading to the ratification of the “Family Support and Youth Population Act” by the Iranian Parliament in 2021. Article 10 of this law mandates the Central Bank to provide “interest-free childbirth loans” through the national banking network under specified arrangements. Furthermore, Article 1 conditions the provision of certain benefits and incentives on the fertility rate of the father’s or child’s birthplace not exceeding 2.5. Accordingly, 25 counties are excluded from receiving these childbearing loans, creating a suitable control group for evaluating the policy’s impact. Using a panel data model, Propensity Score Matching to align treatment and control groups, and a fixed-effects Difference-in-Differences approach, this study examines the effect of receiving childbirth loans on fertility outcomes. The findings indicate a positive and statistically significant effect of the loan policy on the General Fertility Rate. In the short run, the provision of childbirth loans has succeeded in increasing fertility rates. Estimates show that the policy raises the GFR by approximately 5.46 units per year. In other words, in each county eligible for the loan, the policy results in an additional 5.46 births annually per 1,000 women aged 15–49. It should be noted, however, that these findings do not imply a reversal of the downward fertility trend, nor do they suggest that financial incentives alone are sufficient to sustainably improve fertility. The results also indicate that other variables included in the model—such as inflation and the share of housing expenditures—have a negative and significant relationship with fertility
- Keywords:
- Public Policy ; Childbearing ; Fertility Rate ; Childbearing Loan ; General Fertility Rate ; Difference-in-Difference Method
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