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Developing an Optimization Model for the Adaptation of Iran's Energy System to Climate Change

Razeghi Jahromi, Dorsa | 2025

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 58521 (46)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Energy Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Khajehpour, Hossein
  7. Abstract:
  8. This study develops an optimization model to assess and enhance the resilience of Iran’s energy system under future climate change conditions. Using the OSeMOSYS framework, the impacts of projected changes in temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and wind speed on the performance of power generation technologies (solar, wind, hydro, and thermal) as well as on electricity demand patterns across Iran’s climatic regions were analyzed up to 2050. Four main scenarios were designed: (1) a baseline scenario without climate or environmental constraints, (2) an emission reduction scenario with carbon limits but no adaptation, (3) an adaptation scenario considering direct climatic effects on supply and demand, and (4) a combined mitigation–adaptation scenario. Results indicate that under the baseline, thermal power plants remain dominant and carbon emissions continue to rise. In the mitigation scenario, renewable energies, particularly solar and wind, expand significantly, reducing dependence on fossil fuels. In the adaptation scenario, thermal and hydropower efficiencies decline due to climate impacts, while solar and wind power become more favorable, creating a more climate-resilient electricity mix. The integrated scenario yields the most balanced outcome, achieving lower total system costs, higher stability, and reduced emissions compared to the separate implementation of each approach. These findings highlight the necessity of integrating adaptation and mitigation policies to ensure that Iran’s energy sector can maintain reliability, sustainability, and economic efficiency in the face of accelerating climate change
  9. Keywords:
  10. Climate Change ; Adaptation to Changes ; Optimization Model ; Energy Modeling ; Renewable Energy Resources ; Iran Power Industry ; Network Resiliance ; Energy Management Scenario

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