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  1. نظام‌های ارز چندنرخی و اختلال در حجم و ترکیب واردات: شواهدی از ارز چندنرخی در ایران
نظام‌های ارز چندنرخی و اختلال در حجم و ترکیب واردات: شواهدی از ارز چندنرخی در ایران
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نظام‌های ارز چندنرخی و اختلال در حجم و ترکیب واردات: شواهدی از ارز چندنرخی در ایران

شجاعی اسرمی، مبینا Shojaei Esrami, Mobina

Multiple Exchange Rate Systems and Disruptions in Import Volume and Composition: Evidence from Iran's Multiple Exchange Rates

Shojaei Esrami, Mobina | 2025

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 58432 (44)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Management and Economics
  6. Advisor(s): Ansari, Mahdi
  7. Abstract:
  8. Multi-rate exchange regimes, still employed in numerous developing countries, generate a gap between official and free-market rates, thereby influencing import patterns and the allocation of foreign exchange resources. Utilizing monthly customs data at the HS8 level from Iran’s Customs spanning 2011–2023, this study investigates the impact of Iran’s multi-rate exchange policy on import composition and resource distribution. To this end, a timeline of goods eligible for subsidized exchange rates was constructed based on publicly available resources. The homogeneous effects of the policy are estimated using a fixed-effects regression model, while heterogeneous effects are analyzed through a generalized synthetic control method across commodity groups. Findings reveal that an increase in the exchange rate gap, the percentage difference between free and subsidized rates, significantly enhances imports of subsidized goods. The import elasticity for goods eligible for the preferential rate is four times that of goods covered by the Nima policy. Among commodity categories, intermediate goods exhibit the highest elasticity relative to other groups. However, the synthetic control analysis indicates that the policy’s impact is statistically insignificant for most commodity groups, with significant effects confined to some subset. Robustness checks, including sensitivity and stability tests, corroborate these results. This study provides the first micro-level empirical evidence based on granular customs data, shedding light on the shifts in import composition under a multi-rate exchange regime. The findings underscore the imperative for a critical reassessment of exchange rate policies to optimize economic efficiency
  9. Keywords:
  10. Fixed Effects Regression ; Preferential Currency ; Multi-Exchange Rate Systems ; Gap Analysis ; Import Patterns ; Generalized Synthetic Control

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