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  1. Impacts of future climate and land use/land cover change on urban runoff using fine-scale hydrologic modeling
Impacts of future climate and land use/land cover change on urban runoff using fine-scale hydrologic modeling
134 viewed

Impacts of future climate and land use/land cover change on urban runoff using fine-scale hydrologic modeling

Mayou, L.A

Impacts of future climate and land use/land cover change on urban runoff using fine-scale hydrologic modeling

Mayou, L.A ; Sharif University of Technology | 2024

134 Viewed
  1. Type of Document: Article
  2. DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121284
  3. Publisher: 2024
  4. Abstract:
  5. Future changes in land use/land cover (LULC) and climate (CC) affect watershed hydrology. Despite past research on estimating such changes, studies on the impacts of both these nonstationary stressors on urban watersheds have been limited. Urban watersheds have several important details such as hydraulic infrastructure that call for fine-scale models to predict the impacts of LULC and CC on watershed hydrology. In this paper, a fine-scale hydrologic model—Personal Computer Storm Water Management Model (PCSWMM)—was applied to predict the individual and joint impacts of LULC changes and CC on surface runoff attributes (peak and volume) in 3800 urban subwatersheds in Midwest Florida. The subwatersheds a range of characteristics in terms of drainage area, surface imperviousness, ground slope and LULC distribution. The PCSWMM also represented several hydraulic structures (e.g., ponds and pipes) across the subwatersheds. We analyzed changes in the runoff attributes to determine which stressor is most responsible for the changes and what subwatersheds are mostly sensitive to such changes. Six 24-h design rainfall events (5- to 200-year recurrence intervals) were studied under historical (2010) and future (year 2070) climate and LULC. We evaluated the response of the subwatersheds in terms of runoff peak and volume to the design rainfall events using the PCSWMM. The results indicated that, overall, CC has a greater impact on the runoff attributes than LULC change. We also found that LULC and climate induced changes in runoff are generally more pronounced in greater recurrence intervals and subwatersheds with smaller drainage areas and milder slopes. However, no relationship was found between the changes in runoff and original subwatershed imperviousness; this can be due to the small increase in urban land cover projected for the study area. This research helps urban planners and floodplain managers identify the required strategies to protect urban watersheds against future LULC change and CC. © 2024 Elsevier Ltd
  6. Keywords:
  7. Climate change (CC) ; Hydrologic modeling ; Land use/land cover (LULC) change ; Surface runoff ; Urban watersheds ; Climate ; Climate Change ; Florida ; Hydrology ; Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; Water Movements ; Florida [United States] ; Midwest ; United States ; Land use ; Personal computers ; Rain ; Runoff ; Sewage ; Water management ; Watersheds ; Rain ; Climate change ; Fine-scale ; Hydrologic models ; Land use/land cover ; Land-use land-cover changes ; Stormwater management model(SWMM) ; Subwatersheds ; Surface runoffs ; Urban watershed ; Watershed hydrology ; Climate change ; Floodplain ; Hydrological modeling ; Land cover ; Land use change ; Rainfall ; Runoff ; Watershed ; Agriculture ; Climate ; Climate change ; Controlled study ; Floodplain ; Hydrological model ; Hydrology ; Land use ; Pond ; Storm Water Management Model ; Surface runoff ; United States ; Urban area ; Watershed ; Wetland ; Florida ; Hydrology ; Theoretical model ; Water flow ; Climate change
  8. Source: Journal of Environmental Management ; Volume 362 , 2024 ; 03014797 (ISSN)
  9. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301479724012702