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- Type of Document: Ph.D. Dissertation
- Language: Farsi
- Document No: 57944 (01)
- University: Sharif University of Technology
- Department: Industrial Engineering
- Advisor(s): Rafiee, Majid; William Weber, Gehard
- Abstract:
- In recent years, natural disasters and catastrophic events have frequently disrupted supply chains, leading to significant supply shortages and inducing panic-driven consumer behaviors. These disruptions, coupled with the influence of social interactions and communication dynamics, have profound implications for consumer buying behavior. This dissertation investigates the interplay between panic intensity, social learning mechanisms, and consumer decision-making, with a focus on their impact on demand patterns and retailer profitability. Utilizing a framework that integrates social learning and belief-updating processes, optimal retailer strategies are derived based on empirical insights into consumer behavior. The results demonstrate that at both extreme high and low levels of panic intensity, the application of social learning tools and techniques yields benefits for the retailer, irrespective of inventory capacity. However, at moderate panic intensity, the strategic deployment of social learning mechanisms proves to be advantageous in enhancing retailer profitability. The effectiveness of social learning interventions depends on the level of consumer awareness regarding storage motivations and panic intensity; both excessively high and extremely low levels of awareness undermine the profitability of these strategies. Panic buying also exerts a significant influence on pricing dynamics, with factors such as supplier diversity and product substitutability further complicating the pricing landscape. This study proposes three novel scenarios to systematically examine the effects of disruptions: disruption-dependent scenarios, timing-dependent scenarios, and panic-induced scenarios. These scenarios provide a structured basis for analyzing the interdependencies between disruptions, consumer panic behaviors, and supply chain dynamics. Employing an analytical game-theoretic approach, equilibrium pricing strategies for substitute products are derived under varying degrees of supply chain disruptions and panic intensity. The findings delineate optimal wholesale and retail pricing strategies, offering critical insights into order quantities, pricing structures, and their interrelation with disruption severity and product substitutability. Sensitivity analyses further reveal the intricate relationships between pricing strategies and profitability for retailers and suppliers across diverse operational conditions. The insights presented in this dissertation contribute to both the theoretical and practical understanding of supply chain management under disruption-induced uncertainties. These findings not only inform retailers on how to optimize pricing and inventory strategies but also provide policymakers with actionable recommendations for mitigating the adverse effects of consumer panic behaviors during crises
- Keywords:
- Supply Chain Management (SCM) ; Game Theory ; Decision Making ; Social Learning Model ; Consumer Behavior ; Panic Buying ; Supply Disruption ; Retail Operation
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