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Development of the Energy System's Resiliency Model (Case Study:Iran)

Ahmadi, Somayeh | 2021

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  1. Type of Document: Ph.D. Dissertation
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 54478 (46)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Energy Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Saboohi, Yadoola; Vakili, Ali
  7. Abstract:
  8. The high reliability of energy supply and the compatibility of the energy sector with the environment are essential factors in the process of the economic reconstruction and the sustainable development of countries. Thus, most of our activities, well-functioning of modern societies, and the growth of economies (such as the gross domestic product (GDP) of countries) depend on a reliable and efficient supply of energy. In today’s global and increasingly dynamic and turbulent environments, energy systems and supply energy are challenged with numerous disruptive events which threaten to disrupt the activities and performance of energy systems. There is a bilateral relation between energy sector hazards and social and economic systems. Therefore, the effects of threats and hazards caused by the energy sector on the environment and human society, as well as the impact of natural disasters, technology, and society disruptions on the energy sector, are the factors affecting social and economic systems. Hence, the evaluation of the risks, threats, and disturbances to the energy supply and demand and the energy system resilience is one of the major challenges of energy planning and policy making because of the relationship of economic and social systems with energy systems. Resilience is considered as a strategy for risk management, and its goal is to minimize vulnerability, improve flexibility, adapt to the surrounding environment, and increase the tolerance of the system in the face of threats and system disturbances.This thesis focuses on developing a long-term framework for evaluating the energy system resilience. Avoiding the disruption of energy systems before a disruptive event by anticipation, resistance to disruption by absorbing the disruption, adapting to unexpected events, and recovering energy systems after disruptive events are the main characters of energy system resilience. Therefore, we defined the energy system resilience as the ability of an energy system to minimize disruptions to energy services by anticipating, resisting, absorbing, adapting to, and recovering from a disruptive event.The ESRM model bridges the gap between long-term energy system planning in macro level and short-term switching operations or micro level modelling approach in response to attacks. The proposed model is structured as a two-stage optimization model to evaluate the resilience for a long-term energy planning considering economic, technical and environmental features, parameter and constrain sets in supply system. Also, the structure matrix is designed to identify the interactions between the energy system and the vulnerable points for each HILP (High Impact Low Probability) event resulted by climate change. The problem is solved by a solution algorithm that allows trade-offs between resilience (ENNS) and economic objectives. Applying this tool offers a high potential for presenting energy planning in an uncertain environment. The application to three case studies shows hydropower is expected to play a key role in supply the electricity effected upon increasing temperature resulted by climate change. We observe that share of electricity generation shift from coal and hydropower to PV in different scenarios based on maximization of energy system resiliency
  9. Keywords:
  10. Energy Policy ; Modeling ; Energy System ; Long-term Optimization ; Long-term Planning ; Energy System Resilience Model (ESRM)

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