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مدل سازی شدت جراحت عابر پیاده در تصادفات رانندگی
پورفخرایی، امیر Poorfakhraei, Amir
- Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
- Language: Farsi
- Document No: 44470 (09)
- University: Sharif University of Technology
- Department: Civil Engineering
- Advisor(s): Samimim, Amir
- Abstract:
- Injury severity is one of the most important measures of accident costs. Pedestrian injury severity has been modeled with several methods. Model specification directly affects the results and recommended policies. Using inappropriate model may lead policy makers to apply misleading policies. Using police-reported collision data from 2008 to 2011 from the state of North Carolina, Unites States, several discrete choice models were developed to investigate the effect of different variables on pedestrian injury severity. These models include Multinomial Logit(MNL) and different Generalized Extreme Value(GEV) structures. Several factors were found to increase pedestrian injury severity, including elderly pedestrian, under influence of alcohol, speed violation, heavy vehicle and darkness without lighting. The effects of variables are different between employed models. The difference is more than 200 percent in some variables. This finding reveals the effect of model specification on the results. Employed models are evaluated based on credible criteria, assumptions made and limitations. The Three-level Nested Logit model is found to be the most appropriate model among proposed models to study pedestrian injury severity
- Keywords:
- Pedestrian Crashes ; Injury Severity ; Discrete Choice Model ; Multinomial Logit Model
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