Sharif Digital Repository

In today’s competitive world, using an efficient forecast method is necessity for companies. To now, many forecast methods have been developed, but many of them have not an expected efficiency. In this research, we develop a new hybrid forecast method with application of forecasting retails demand. The hybrid method is the combination of ARIMA method and neural networks. To test the efficiency of the method we use the 96 weeks data of plastic containers demand. We also comprise the hybrid method with other forecast methods including naïve method, ARIMA method and neural network method by applying root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error indexes. In the case of plastic... 

In this research, the synthesis of the electrospum nano fiber doped zinc oxide and its photocatalyst usage was investigated. The band gap of the zinc oxide in the area of UV leads to deactivation of this material at the visible light. With due the attention to sunny weather in Iran and the fact that about 50 percentage of sunlight is visible light, producing and usage of catalyst materials actived at visible light is economical. Doping is one of the ways of activating ZnO at visible light, so in this research thiourea is used as the source of ZnO doping. The results of the expriments done at visible light and also spectrums of DRS, XPS and XRD prove that the doping is happened. Also, in this... 

The objective of this research is to design a drug delivery system that allows anti-inflammatory drugs to be injected directly into the joint (intra-articular injection) for the treatment of arthritis so that reduce the side effects associated with oral consumption of these drugs, increase the duration of drug retention in the joint environment, and reduce the side effects caused by repeated injections while improving effectiveness. To achieve this, first, desirable features were determined by considering the anatomy of the joint environment, the biological changes caused by the disease, and reviewing published articles and commercial products in the field; appropriate drug and raw materials... 

This paper decomposes the saving rate into cohort, age and year effects. This objective is accomplished by constructing a pseudo-panel that amalgamates nineteen consecutive, cross-sectional Household Income and Expenditure Surveys from 1991 to 2009. To construct year-of-birth cohorts with consistent composition over time, analyses are limited to those born between 1926 and 1975. Results reveal that those belonging to younger cohorts save a higher fraction of their income relative to their predecessors at the same age. Moreover, the increase in the saving rate can not be explained by the significant decline in household size or rise in educational attainment among younger cohorts. Closer... 

Release of toxic gases and hazardous materials is very dangerous for health of people that presence in near of release places. Whereas if the concentration of some toxic materials is more than a definite limit, it may cause of irreparable hurt to health of people in very short times, hence reduce the concentration of released materials can get the time for refuge in safe sites for people that presence in released site in initial times.
In this paper with use the Computational Fluid Dynamics models the effect of fence in reduce the concentration of dense gases and delay the distribution of these gases has been studied. The two toxic gas (chlorine and methyl-isocyanate ) have been... 

Sour Gas is more dangerous than sweet gas because of its hydrogen sulfide contents. So it requires more safety considerations. In this project, the effect of wall thickness and design factor of pipeline on the safe distance was examined by using risk assessment method. The safe distance tables for 4 pipelines with different wall thicknesses and design factors were prepared based on operating pressure, pipe diameter and hydrogen sulfide concentration in gas by using PHAST and PHAST RISK softwares. In this project, the depth of cover parameter was considered in safe distance determination. Also the leak of sour gas was simulated by using... 

In this project, ammonia dispersion in the environment have been investigated and the experimental data have been used in order to show accuracy of calculations. Also, the results of CFD have been compared with the results of PHAST software. The results show that when there is no obstacle in the way of gas release, dispersion models will get good results, but due to existence of the obstacle, their error will be increased to 300%. However, the error resulting from CFD is less than 24% even if there are obstacle there. The effects of obstacle’s distance and height on the dispersion of ammonia gas are investigated. This study showed that the concentration of ammonia increase, when the distance... 

One of the most important stages to designing a process plant is layout of equipment in unit area. There are plenty of routine procedures to find out equipment arrangement and their separation distances based on process and cost criteria. Although some studies have been carried out to enter safety parameters to conventional procedures, the problem complexity because of the number of involved equipment is still of concern. To clear these ambiguities, the new approach presented in this thesis is aimed at quantifying the effects of adjacent equipment on each other. In this way, fire radiation and explosion have been selected as the major hazard that any equipment can expose on the other items,... 

Chlorine is used in large quantities, in urban and industrial installations. Since chlorine is a toxic gas, its dispersion in such environments may have unpleasant consequences. On the point of Emergency Response Planning, it is important to know how such gases disperse. In this thesis, chlorine atmospheric dispersion is studied as an example of toxic dense gas dispersion. Chlorine accidental release from one of the storage tanks of Sohanak water refinery is selected for the case study. Laleh residential town is located in west of Sohanak refinery. According to the prevailing wind direction in Tehran (which is from the west to the east), the influence of the buildings of Laleh town on gas... 

One of the most important stages to designing a process plant is layout of equipment in unit area. There are plenty of routine procedures to find out equipment arrangement and their separation distances based on process and cost criteria. One of this Procedures is the use of codes and standards. Although some studies have been carried out to enter safety parameters to conventional procedures, the problem complexity because of the number of involved equipment is still of concern. To clear these ambiguities, the new approach presented in this thesis is aimed at quantifying the effects of adjacent equipment on each other. In this way, fire radiation and explosion have been selected as the major... 

Dust explosions are a serious hazard in many process industries and storage facilities. More than 70% of dusts processed in industry are combustible. This implies that majority of industrial plants that have dust processing equipment are susceptible to dust explosions. Dust explosions pose the most serious and widespread of explosion hazards in the process industry alongside vapour cloud explosions (VCE) and boiling liquid expanding vapour explosions (BLEVE). Dust explosions almost always lead to serious financial losses in terms of damage to facilities and down time. They also often cause serious injuries to personnel, and fatalities. In this project we presented a systematic algorithm in... 

The main application of flares is to protect facilities, staff, and surrounding area. Nevertheless, the flares flue gas contains environmental hazardous compounds like nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, and greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide. These compounds may spread in environment with unburned hydrocarbons. Due to the contamination risk and energy loss in flaring system, optimization and system enhancement is of vital importance. Flare gas recovery unit consist of equipment like multi-phase separator, Liquid Seal Drum, and compressor. The compressor is the most important part of this unit. Due to the process requirements and the probability of two-phase feed entering... 

As Ethylene Oxide is a highly toxic, flammable, and hazardous material, the consequences of any malfunction in an Ethylene Oxide reactor may be irreparable. The aim of this thesis is to evaluate the probable consequences of an accident in Morvarid Petrochemical Co.’s Ethylene Oxide Reactor in order to find probable hazardous scenarios. In this project, probable accidents were modelled and evaluated by Phast software in different scenarios, and the outcomes were investigated. In addition, if necessary, a set of solutions were proposed to decrease casualties in hazardous scenarios. The results may be used to change layouts according to Consequence Modelling. Results illustrated that... 

Emergency Shut Down systems are considered as one of the prominent protection layers in industries. In the situation that the process variables exist acceptable limits, the SIS brings the process in a safe state. According to standards, separate design and operation have been defined for BPCS and SIS. In this research, safety issues related to one of the gas refinery unit has been investigated. In fact, the unit does not have shut down system and all the safety loops are defined as DCS. In the first step, the Safety Integrated Levels of the loops which must be defined in shut down system have been specified by using Modified Calibrated Risk Graf. In next step, philosophy of shut down levels... 

Liquid ammonia atmospheric tank (20000 ton) attached to Pardis Petrochemical Complex was ruptured on 8th August 2011 due to overpressure blast injury so that ammonia gas was spread throughout the complex. The current study was aimed to evaluate ammonia leakage and emission from the tank. For this purpose, in addition to evaluate ammonia emission into the air, pressure changes were investigated to simulate the rupture. First of all, ammonia tanks and urea stocks were simulated and then considering two aerial classes (D and B), the incident was stimulated. According to this model, up to 1000 m, was contaminated with 1000 ppm of ammonia. Since there was no experimental data for validating the... 

Nowadays evolutionary algorithms help developers to solve many problems in applied science and engineering aspects. So the main goal of this thesis is to apply and verify the ability of evolutionary algorithms and artificial neural networks in optimization of Ethane recovery unit. Algorithms applied in this study are Ant Colony Algorithm, Artificial Immune Systems Algorithm, Incremental Evolutionary Algorithm, Chaotic Based Algorithm, Variable Population Size Genetic Algorithm, Frog Leaping Algorithm, Frog Leaping with Bacterial Optimization Approach and Different types of Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm. Optimization methods based on local search are also applied in order to compare...